Briefings
What we are watching
Explainers and post-event analysis, written to be useful to someone who has to make a decision rather than someone writing a paper.
More briefings
Nowcast · 4 min
Why nowcasting is a latency problem, not a modelling problem
Below two hours, the sophistication of your model matters less than how fast the answer reaches the person who needs it.
Climate · 7 min
ENSO and the season ahead: what seasonal forecasts can and cannot tell you
At seasonal range the honest output is a probability shift, not a forecast. That is still worth a great deal if you price it correctly.
Air quality · 5 min
Smoke travels further than you think
The cities with the worst air during a fire season are frequently nowhere near a fire. Dispersion forecasting is a different problem from fire forecasting.