Severe
Severe weather
When a storm is forming, the useful question is not what the forecast says. It is how much the models disagree — and which way the outliers point.
Tropical cyclone tracks with full member spread, plus the environments that produce tornadoes, damaging wind and hail.
- Lead time
- 1–7 days
- Resolution
- 0.25°
- Variables
- CAPE, shear, helicity, gusts, MSLP
- Update
- 4× daily
What you get
Cyclone tracks, every member
Not a single line. Every ensemble member's track and intensity, so you can see the spread and price the tail rather than the mean.
Convective environments
CAPE, bulk shear and storm-relative helicity — the ingredients that make a supercell possible, at day-scale lead times.
Wind and hail risk
Damaging-wind gust probability and hail size distribution, calibrated against observed reports rather than model output alone.
What we do not claim
Tornado-scale predictability is measured in hours, not days. We forecast the environments that favour tornado formation at day-scale lead times — nobody can forecast an individual tornado days ahead, and any vendor who says otherwise is selling something.
